Prepare for a busy hurricane season.
NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued a forecast on Thursday that says there is an 85 percent chance of more named storms, more hurricanes and more major hurricanes than the average.
NOAA 2024 hurricane forecast
The forecast is NOAA's most aggressive ever issued in May ahead of a hurricane season. It predicts:
The forecast for a busy season is in line with forecasts from North Carolina State and Colorado State university experts, who released their forecasts earlier in the spring.
How accurate are NOAA hurricane season forecasts?
NOAA does not tend to over-hype the chance for hurricanes.
"Over the past five years, NOAA forecasts have been very accurate," WRAL meteorologist Kat Campbell said. Where they have not been right on, they have forecast fewer named storms than what actually happened.
- In 2023, NOAA forecast a near-normal hurricane season. They got it right for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the season produced more named storms than were forecast.
- In 2022, NOAA forecast an above-normal hurricane season. They got it right for the number of named storms and hurricanes, but the season produced more major hurricanes than were forecast.
- In 2021, NOAA forecast an above normal hurricane season. They got it right for the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, but the season produced more named storms than were forecast.
Average hurricane season
The average over the past 30 years has been:
Each of the forecasts anticipates for a greater number than average of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, and the NOAA forecast pushes those numbers the highest.
Record number of hurricanes
Although the 30-year average is for 14 named storms, we have exceeded that average in seven of the past 10 years.
The record was set in 2020, when there were 30 named storms. That same year there were 14 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.
Recent years have seen 20+ storms. In 2021, there were 21 named storms; in 2023, there were 20.
2020 was also a La Niña year, and similar conditions are setting up for the summer of 2024.
What is La Niña?
The forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season factor in a La Niña pattern, means weaker easterly trade winds and below average vertical wind shear. Basically, in La Niña conditions, there is less wind to break up a tropical system as it organizes.
During a La Niña pattern, Campbell says, "It's easier for storms to form and easier for them to strengthen."
Through the spring of 2024, the east coast will be in an El Niño period, but it is weakening.
NOAA said there is a 77 percent chance for La Niña conditions to develop in July, August, September of 2024. It's very common to have a quick transition from an El Niño to a La Niña.
"It's not a guarantee that we will have a La Niña for the tropical season, but all signs are pointing in that direction," WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said.
The last summer La Niña came in 2020, when a record 30 storms were named.
Added on top of record warm temperatures across most of the Atlantic Ocean already, with summer's heat still to come, the conditions are right for storms to be strong and organized.
Prepare your home, family for hurricane season
Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1 and runs through November. Storms can form at any time, but there are precautions the North Carolina residents – from the coast to the mountains – can take ahead of time.
FAQs
We estimate that 2024 will have 25 named storms (average is 14.4), 120 named storm days (average is 69.4), 12 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 50 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 6 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 16 major hurricane days (average is 7.4).
What is the NOAA prediction for hurricanes in 2024? ›
This year, NOAA predicts a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17-25 named storms (average is 14), 8-13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4-7 major hurricanes (average is 3) (3).
How bad will hurricane season be in 2024? ›
In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will yield 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three become major hurricanes. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 90% probability of this result.
What is the prediction for the Caribbean storms in 2024? ›
Forecast for the whole 2024 season
The most likely number of named tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) predicted to occur in the North Atlantic is 18, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 13 to 23. The 1991-2020 long-term average is 14.
What are the predictions for hurricane season in New Orleans 2024? ›
NOAA predicted in May that there will be 17-25 named storms, with 8-13 of these storms forming into hurricanes, and 4-7 reaching a Category 3 or above. Overall, NOAA predicts that the chance of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season being above-average is 85 percent.
What is the hurricane forecast for Pacific 2024? ›
The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 140°W and north of the equator. The 2024 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity: 11-17 Named Storms. 4-9 Hurricanes.
How many named storms are there in 2024? ›
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be one of the most active on record, with AccuWeather experts forecasting 20 to 25 named storms in 2024.
What month is worst for hurricanes? ›
The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30 of each year. Historically, the most active time for hurricane development is mid-August through mid-October.
What is the summer of 2024 looking like? ›
A hot summer is expected for nearly all of the contiguous U.S. with only a few exceptions. From June through August, temperatures are forecast to run at least 2 degrees above historical averages across more than half of the country.
What is the new hurricane season forecast? ›
The updated seasonal outlook now calls for 17 to 24 named storms to form, of which 8 to 13 will spin up into hurricanes. (An average year sees 14 named storms, of which 7 are hurricanes.)
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be well above its long-period average. We predict Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2024 to be ~185% of their 1991–2020 average.
What month has the most hurricanes in New Orleans? ›
The hurricane season in New Orleans runs from early June through late November each year, with peak hurricane activity occurring in late August and early September.
How often does NOAA update hurricane forecast? ›
Every six hours NHC will issue updated text and graphics — all available on hurricanes.gov — that include track and intensity forecasts for the next five days, storm surge watches and warnings, coastal tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for wind, along with the chances of and time of arrival of tropical ...
What is the hurricane prediction for 2025? ›
Pre-season outlooks
NOAA released their prediction on the same day, as well as CSU, with NOAA predicting 17 storms, 9 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, and CSU predicting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
How far in advance can meteorologists predict hurricanes? ›
But in the early 2000s, scientists started realizing they could make accurate predictions with greater notice. In 2013, the National Hurricane Center officially extended the range of its Tropical Weather Outlook to five days. And in 2023, it announced that it would expand again to seven days.
What are the hurricane predictions for 2024 in South Carolina? ›
Near-normal Atlantic hurricane season predicted for 2024
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5, with winds of 111 mph or higher).
